For over a decade, the world has noticed an increasing expansion in India’s economy and military which surely poses consequences not only for the region of South Asia but also for the rest of the world. India has been intent on climbing the ladder of Majors powers however there are many factors that legitimize the status of a Great Power for a state and for India; the first would be to attain domestic stability in its region.
Kenneth Waltz describes the criteria of a major power as a state that has the competence to influence other states to comply with it as well as be able to refuse to accept any undesirable influence of others. In the light of this definition, India does not fit the criteria of a Major power. For one, India is not capable of influencing others to comply with it. For example, despite being a Nuclear Weapon state, India has not been successful in pressurizing other states to isolate Pakistan, its biggest adversary in international politics as well as its bordering nuclear power neighbor. Nor has it acquired a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council which it has been aiming at for several years. It has also failed to single-handedly persuade the World Trade Organization in adopting its proposed trade terms.
On one hand, while comparing India with major powers such as China, France, and U.S. and so on, we notice that India’s relative diplomatic influence through soft power or hard power as well as its economic and military strength are far less influential than those states mentioned, which clearly illustrates how limited India’s diplomatic influence is in the face of other competent major powers. Although, in the region of South Asia, India holds much leverage, if not fully over its neighbor, Pakistan, then certainly on the rest of the five South Asian States.
On the other hand, India’s own military strength, its diplomatic influence, technological capacity, governance, and social structure are still strong enough to resist most demands imposed on it by other major power states. However, there are many domestic challenges faced by India that still deprive it of the status of a Great Power. For instance, India’s population is more diverse and larger than those of United States, France, Germany, the UK, Central America and South America combined. Yet, it is a democracy which faces inevitable socioeconomic development challenges as well as a constant threat to its internal peace which emanates from the conflicts of diverse interest groups.
India’s GDP was estimated to be $3,700 in 2011, which comparing to other major powers such as China, which is estimated at $8,400, is fairly less. A low GDP indicates practically less productivity and poor material welfare for a state’s citizens which can affect a state’s priorities regarding its domestic and international objectives. India’s ranking in Human Development Index, which measures citizens’ basic needs, is on 134th in the world whereas China is on 101st. Such factors also put states in a recipient position, for example for financial assistance from other states, rather than be a donor, which ultimately shapes their chances of achieving an influential status in global politics.
Another challenge that emerges from India’s large diverse population is its difficulty in organizing the entire Indian population towards a uniform domestic agenda, which is a must in acquiring domestic stability in order to move on to deciding the direction to take in the international politics. India’s state capacity and political cohesion allow the large democracy to pursue their own creative interests through, of course, regulated politics. However, the divisions in the population caused by the diversity of caste, religion, ideology, economic class and so on, in the form of, for example interest groups, inhibit the possibility of a united direction for the whole nation.
A significantly large segment of India’s population (60%) which comprises of the poor inhabits its rural areas that survive on agricultural production only. In addition to a lack of primary education in such areas as well as a limited rural infrastructure, India’s potential economic growth seems direly inhibited. However, much of any economic growth that India has received has been in regions that are already developed and where literacy rate is high. India’s fiscal deficit also affects its defense spending in addition to its socioeconomic demands.
In terms of its international trade, India only accounts for less than 1% of the world trade, which is relatively very low. However, India leads in many advanced technology sectors in the world such as the information and biotechnology sectors. Moreover, despite being one of the nine nuclear power states in the world, India cannot be considered free from the security challenges that it faces within country as well as from its western and Northern neighbors, Pakistan and China respectively. India spends 2.5% of its GDP (2006) but its security threats begin at home, including the Jammu and Kashmir issue it shares with Pakistan. Though it has one of the largest military in the world, its internal and political challenges have to be overcome before it can consider itself fully secure as a great power in the world.
However, military strength, socioeconomic development or nuclear power status may not be all to influence a state’s international standing. Its strategic diplomacy, especially through soft power can account for a lot. India’s leadership, its strategic vision and international diplomacy have shown quite a fluctuation but have been ambitious in moving their international diplomatic direction towards achieving a great power status. This, of course, will only be possible once India’s own internal problems have been overcome enough to clarify its international objectives and achieve their effectiveness.
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